Assume that the map will temper over the next thirty years but here's the map if the election were decided by just 18-29 year olds (who will be the core voting bloc in 20 years).

11:13 am | Comment (4) | Print | Categories: Election '08

At 11:00 PM Eastern time, the polls closed in California.

Then the party started.

Fireworks could be heard all around DC, as people celebrated the victory of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois.

A spontaneous party at the White House wouldn't have been more fitting if they'd brought a rail along, as locals and tourists alike celebrated one thing: that change is coming.

Elsewhere, Democrats picked up 5 seats in the Senate and a jaw-dropping 18 seats in the House, with 3 and 10 races undecided in the two chambers. These supermajorities undoubtedly mean that legislation to help struggling home owners is on the way, as is health care reform, pension reform, and government reform.

The numbers are still being calculated, but it's expected that turnout will be higher in this election than any other in history. Obama's wins in states like Virginia, North Carolina, and even in Indiana, an always-early patch of red each election, will change the map for a long time to come and expand the number of battleground states that must be defended.

Congratulations to Senator Obama. It was a long campaign and we welcome you here in Washington.

9:21 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08

Dear Senator McCain:

I'm not sure what you mean by the "real" Virginia. To my knowledge, the haven't moved the border in the last few weeks. So what exactly do you mean?

Oh, you mean the people that agree with you. I forgot. Just like your running mate said a few days ago, how she likes to visit the "patriotic" parts of the country. As if voting for Republicans is the only thing that makes a person patriotic.

You seem to have forgotten that so many of our Founding Fathers, many of them from Virginia, had honest political differences with each other. And they managed those differences through discussion, and debate, and honest means. They didn't question the patriotism of people who disagreed with them, like you and your running make like to do.

You also forget that Virginia was a Democratic state until 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act and other measures making discrimination against African Americans illegal. And based upon how your campaign has been targeting these groups in the last few weeks, it's not a surprise that you think the "real" Virginia is the parts where blacks are still disenfranchised, to this day.

But in two weeks when you and Sarah get sent home, it's not going to be because "fake" America didn't vote for you. It's going to be because Americans are looking for more than an angry, bitter old man to lead them. It's going to be because they reject the bigoted, angry, fear-mongering policies that you promote. And it's going to be because you haven't shown that you're capable of leading - only that you're capable of blaming.

Until you learn that the "real" Virginia is made up of the people that live in the whole state, you should stay out of it. I know many "real" Virginians who are and ought to be offended by your remark.

John McCain Strong In "Real" Virginia ~ Associated Press, 10/18/2008

9:03 pm | Comment (3) | Print | Categories: Election '08

The electoral map, as of this afternoon.

7:51 pm | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Washington, DC

Week 1 is finished of work for The Bivings Group. So far, I'm enjoying it a lot.

DC has had some interesting experiences in the last week, most notably with the arrival of Sens. Obama and McCain to meet with President Bush. Sen. Obama received a warm welcome from cheering crowds outside the Mayflower Hotel where he was staying. No such reception was reported for Sen. McCain. Washington, DC is 85% Democratic.

There was also some debate this week over whether or not fire hydrants work properly in the District, a holdover from a fire in Adams Morgan last year where fire hydrants failed to properly maintain water pressure and forced the fire department to take emergency measures to douse the flames.

And construction on the inaugural stage has begun in ernest, with Sen. Barbara Boxer, chair of the Inaugural Committee, pounding in the first stake this last week. Washington will be transformed into a large, open-air prison fairground over the next few months while the country prepares to inaugurate the next President.

8:41 pm | Comment (2) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Washington, DC

Conservative registrars have been caught red-handed scaring students, who tend to be liberal, out of registering to vote, saying that they will lose tax benefits, health insurance, and scholarships for registering to vote with their school as their address.

Though the New York Times and the Obama campaign both seem to say that the releases are not political, student voter registrations are intensely political. Students tend to be more liberal, as a whole, and with Virginia being one state where tens of thousands of students could make the difference, it would be hard to argue that there is no political benefit to the Republican party.

This isn't the first time that college students have been prevented from registering to vote. In the 1970's, some African American college students were barred from registering at their college addresses, prompting a Supreme Court ruling that allows students to register at either address.

This is of course not the first effort by the Republican party to prevent people from voting. Faulty "identification laws" that disenfranchise poor and older voters have been passed in numerous states, including Ohio, and challenges have been mounting against voter registrations (see the felon crisis in 2004 in Florida, which targeted minority populations).

But scaring students is a new low, even for Republicans, and they ought to be ashamed.

8:20 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08

10:51 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Humorous

Note to John McCain: You really need to vet people who work for your campaign!

Though the news has been dominated by news about Palin, she's not the first mistake that John McCain has made. From staffers also being tied to Jack Abramoff, to staffers being on the Georgian (country) payroll while McCain was issuing strong statements of support, John McCain's campaign is amateur hour.

Palin's scandals now threaten to sink the McCain campaign - from her daughter (who sadly should never have been brought into this in the first place) to a corruption investigation by her own Republican-controlled legislature, to her ties to the "Bridge to Nowhere," if she's not personally corrupt she certainly appears to be so. And with people knowing so little about who she is, these few days are going to be critical to her image in the country.

As we draw nearer to the convention, FiveThirtyEight.com's polling model shows an ever-increasing certainty of an Obama victory in November. Their model adjusts automatically for post-convention bumps, meaning that the numbers are likely accurate. It's mistakes like the incomplete vetting and attempted cover-up in the McCain campaign that are the reason for these strong Obama poll numbers. The reality is that after eight years of a liar, Americans want honesty, and they're viewing McCain as increasingly dishonest, whether that be the case or not. And for McCain, this is not the time for scandal.

9:38 pm | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08

11:42 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08

John McCain isn't surrendering yet.

His pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential nominee is certainly unique to politics. And her benefit to the election has been discussed vigorously for the past few days. But it's not her contribution to this campaign that matters so much.

It's her contribution to the next one.

In the clearest sign that McCain, 72, would serve only one term, John McCain split Hillary Clinton's most vital constituency in the 2012 general election in half: women.

If McCain beats Obama, and declines to run again, Palin has almost a certain lock on the Republican nomination. It'd be "her turn." And with Clinton's near-win in 2008, she's sure to try again, setting up a showdown between two women for President.

Democrats rely on women to put them in office. Married women overwhelmingly favored Clinton in 1996, at 60% of the vote while unmarried women voted for Clinton 54% of the time; in 2004 54% of women voted for Kerry (it's not broken down into married and unmarried). There is not data on Wikipedia for 2000.

What would happen if that core constituency were split even? It'd be up to men to decide the Presidency, and 55% of men would vote for a Republican over a Democrat. That's the balance of the election.

McCain's pick is smart for now, but also smart for later. The only hope: that smart women everywhere recognize his selection for what it is - one of opportunity, not of quality - and reject the politics of opportunity.

The next twelve years depend on it.

(Bonus from FiveThirtyEight.com : "Great visual: Palin walking out with her daughter. Not-so-great visual: Palin embracing McCain and looking like his daughter." [Italics supplied] Guess I'm not the only one surprised...)

11:58 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08

8:46 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08

John McCain and Barack Obama are taking Presidential politics to the next level, playing President and chief diplomat by visiting Columbia and Germany. But I have to ask, what's up with that?

McCain's less publicized trip to Columbia was eclipsed by Obama's flap over the Brandenburg Gate speech, which was apparently started by the Bush administration making a quiet request to German officials to make Barack Obama's trip as hard as possible. But regardless, why are the candidates leaving the country?

They don't vote in Germany. And they don't vote in Columbia. So what's the deal, candidates?

8:49 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08

Senator Obama has launched a new website, www.FightTheSmears.com in an effort to combat inaccurate portrayals of his record by right-wing Republicans.

The smear and distorted record are time-honored traditions of political campaigns, and they're techniques used by both Republicans (see Bush vs. McCain in South Carolina, 2000) and Democrats (see Webb vs. Allen, Virginia 2006).

Senator Obama has committed to running an issue-oriented, positive campaign of change, and I'm encouraged that he is not letting Republicans "swift-boat" his campaign. The website is carefully constructed and the facts are irrefutable (I checked the quotes in his books and they are as he states on the website).

The highlights: Senator Obama was born in America, is not and never was a Muslim, was sworn in on a Bible, has not made racially incendiary remarks in his books and is not opposed to the pledge of allegiance.

www.FightTheSmears.com

7:37 pm | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08

The House of Representatives authorized Amtrak for another five years, and did so by a veto-proof margin today, marking a stiff rebuke to those like John McCain who would see Amtrak's demise.

Over the objections of the White House, the House passed the bill offering $15 billion over five years to Amtrak. The Bush administration threatened a veto, but the increasing popularity of passenger rail and the ever-decreasing popularity of President Bush limits the relevancy of the President on this issue.

The vote also means that should the bill become law, and John McCain wins the White House, he will be unable to veto Amtrak funding from the budget, as the money was appropriated before he took office. Since McCain will likely be a one-term President (he will be 76 at the end of his term), this means Amtrak will survive his "non-negotiable" position.

The House vote was 311 - 104.

7:09 pm | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Metro, Northern Virginia, Politics, Rail, Washington, DC

Do you see something wrong with record profits for oil companies and record prices for gasoline?

The Republican Party doesn't.

They filibustered a bill today that would have raised taxes on windfall profits earned by the oil companies and allowed the Securities and Exchange Commission to reign in speculation in the oil markets. For some reason, Republicans thought that targeting speculation, which has been seen widely as the overall cause of increasing oil prices, was a bad thing. Probably because the speculators donate to Republicans.

Tax increases probably weren't the right idea, and history has shown higher taxes do get passed on to consumers. What is so mind-boggling though is that Republicans didn't simply vote against the bill - they voted against DEBATE of the bill. They were opposed to even TALKING about it. Rather than work together to find something to help American consumers, they were more interested in protecting their campaign war chests and special interests, and refused to even discuss this bill.

This is really shameful behavior. The concepts of free speech and free assembly were based on the idea that a free public discourse would ensure a free society. But Congress can't seem to ensure that same free discourse inside the chambers of democracy, and that's disconcerting. And it's a good reason for Americans to vote these people out of power.

Maybe that's why Republicans are so worried.

1:50 pm | Comment (1) | Print | Categories: Economics, Election '08, Frustration, Washington, DC

12:35 am | Comment (1) | Print | Categories: Election '08

CNN is projecting that Senator Obama has officially recieved enough delegates to win the nomination, making Hillary Clinton the loser of one of the longest races in Democratic history.

Senator Obama began the night four delegates shy of the nomination, and with the way the Democrats allocate delegates, he will certainly receive enough delegates from South Dakota and Minnesota to push him over the top.

9:01 pm | Comment (1) | Print | Categories: Election '08

Hillary Rodham Clinton told colleagues Tuesday she would be consider joining Barack Obama as his running mate, and advisers said she was withholding a formal departure from the race partly to use her remaining leverage to press for a spot on the ticket.

4:29 pm | Comment (1) | Print | Categories: Bizarre, Election '08

Hillary Clinton will concede defeat tonight, according to CNN and AP.

Updated at 6/3/2008 @ 1:45 pm
Hillary Clinton's campaign has said the reports of her concession are wrong and that she is "absolutely not" conceding the race.

11:22 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08

Hillary Clinton is the woman who won't quit. Feeling that the nomination is her God-given right, she has refused to step aside for the will of the voters. The only thing left for the Democratic Party at this point is to neutralize her, and make sure that she cannot damage the party further.

The easiest way to do that is for enough superdelegates to switch to Barack Obama so that there are no numbers that make it possible for Senator Clinton to win the nomination.

That way, regardless of whether or not the delegations on the floor attempt to include Michigan and Florida, Senator Obama will have enough votes that he will still win the nomination, regardless of the outcome of that fight.

Then, and only then, will Senator Clinton finally be finished - when the math makes it impossible under any circumstances to win the nomination, regardless of what she tries to do.

4:31 pm | Comment (3) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Frustration

Take another page from the Republican playbook for Hillary Clinton. In her premature victory speech to Indiana, she declared that she could "keep us safe" and "make this economy work." But wait...aren't those the same promises of John McCain?

The truth is that Hillary Clinton let slip her true colors tonight. Hillary Clinton doesn't represent the change America needs, because she's in the breast pockets of special interests. The words "keep" and "make work" indicate continuing along the same path, the Bush-McCain path, the failed strategy that has us mired in two wars with a foundering economy and flailing middle class.

Clinton's error will likely go unnoticed by the mainstream media as they talk about how close Indiana will turn out to be. Her speech paled in comparison to the heartfelt and presidential speech given by Obama earlier in the night, and I think it will start to show in later races. But it's increasingly clear that a vote for Clinton is just like a vote for McCain: more of the same, failed, flawed, foolish policies of the last eight years.

11:21 pm | Comments Disabled | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

But conventional thinking in Washington lined up for war. The pundits judged the political winds to be blowing in the direction of the President. Despite - or perhaps because of how much experience they had in Washington, too many politicians feared looking weak and failed to ask hard questions. Too many took the President at his word instead of reading the intelligence for themselves. Congress gave the President the authority to go to war. Our only opportunity to stop the war was lost. ~ Barack Obama

7:59 am | Comment (1) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

Take the following scenario: a relatively inexperienced, young, attractive Presidential candidate of ethnic decent with a young family runs for President against a party establishment. He wins a number of contests, some unexpectedly, but trails his establishment colleagues, forcing the Democratic convention into deadlock.

Sound like the Democratic race to this point? It was also the plotline in the 6th and 7th seasons of the West Wing. Continue Reading...

8:51 pm | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

As if the first time wasn't enough, Clinton was caught in another lie. This time, she claims that on a trip to Bosnia, she landed under sniper fire and was whisked away to safety...in her words she said:

"I remember landing under sniper fire. There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base."

4:55 pm | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Humorous, Politics

With 1,485 total delegates (1,242 pledged and 243 superdelegates), and assuming that Hillary Clinton won 100% of the vote for the remaining contests, she would be unable to cinch the Democratic nomination for President, failing by 131 delegates. Barack Obama, on the other hand, could cinch the nomination by six delegates, though that seems unlikely given that he would still have to win 100% of the vote in all the remaining states.
Continue Reading...

9:12 pm | Comment (6) | Print | Categories: Election '08

Highlights since March 1st - enjoy!

1. The worst plan. Ever. Why charging tolls to drive in the city is a bad idea.
2. Cheap Eats Food for $5 per serving? It's possible even with rising prices.
3. The Death of Customer Service Good customer service is hard to come by these days. An experience worth reading.
4. Obama Wins Texas! Maybe? Sort of... Not really? A look at the Texas "primus" (primary + caucus).
5. Mac Secrets A look at exciting new software from the makers of Quicksilver.

1:03 pm | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Apple, Blog Roundup, Business, Economics, Election '08, Maryland, Northern Virginia, Pet Peeves, Politics, Technology, Traffic, Travel

Hillary Clinton - Liar.

9:05 am | Comment (6) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

In elections, there is usually a clear winner...I mean, occasionally Florida has trouble finding an abacus big enough to count their votes but generally we have a clear winner, and that's the person who gains more support overall. That's how it's supposed to work. Right?

Not if you're from Texas, apparently. Continue Reading...

9:03 am | Comment (2) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

Few people have ever heard of Judge Jeffery S. White. But right now, Judge White is the biggest threat to the United States Constitution, specifically the First Amendment, since the Alien and Sedition Acts in the 1790’s and the PATRIOT Act in early 2002. See, Judge White decided to ignore the First Amendment and order a website shut down because of content posted to that website by a user. It’s not a surprise that Judge White was appointed by the Bush administration, and even less of a surprise that he shares their hatred for the Constitution, but few have been so blatant about ignoring the amendment as Judge White.
Continue Reading...

9:02 am | Comment (4) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

7:02 pm | Comment (4) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

By now, the media has made a complete mess out of the Super Tuesday results, with conflicting information and way too much coverage. Our collective primary and caucus system is complex, to be sure. Here is my analysis of the race for the White House...
Continue Reading...

9:02 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

7:27 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Crime, Election '08, Politics

Whether fair or not, New Hampshire's place as the first primary following the first caucus has always given it a unique impact on the Presidential campaigns. In some years, it has shifted the momentum from one candidate coming from Iowa to another; in other years, it has approved the Iowa nominee who then went on to be President. But whatever the outcome, there has always been a unique result out of having such a small state with such a prominent place in the national discussion of Presidential candidates. Last Tuesday provided no exception to this rule.
Continue Reading...

5:02 pm | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

9:51 pm | Comment (3) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics

Iowa holds it's first-in-the-nation caucus this Thursday, and the races are tight. Since it's the general consensus among most pundits that regardless of the nominee, if the election were held today, the Democrats would win it. But if that's true, then why is it that the state of Iowa, population 2,892,085, gets to decide for the rest of America who the next President will be?
Continue Reading...

12:15 pm | Comment (1) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics, Washington, DC

Steven Colbert, now candidate for President.

11:36 am | Comment (1) | Print | Categories: Bizarre, Election '08, Politics

Protesters in Manassas, VA. Photo from the New York Times.

11:34 am | Comment (0) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Immigration, Northern Virginia, Politics

A couple of weeks ago, I covered a proposal in California that would change how electoral votes are apportioned in the California general election for President. I described how the system was inherently unfair, and I recieved some remarks regarding the system and how it would be "more" fair than the current system. I wanted to address some of those complaints here.

The Electoral College was a good system for the time it was designed. It was designed to let the states select the President. Our Republic was designed to give the people a limited influence; in fact, the people are limtied to electing the House of Representatives. It is only through history that the people have been given more power to elect Federal leaders; typically the perview of the Federal government was international affairs and the states handled domestic issues.

Our country has changed. We now directly elect our Senators, individuals who were supposed to represent their states' interests to the Federal government. We also directly elect our President, even though the Constitution doesn't require that our state legislators allow us to do so. The electoral college's purpose of providing states the ability to elect the President no longer serves its purpose. Thus, it should be abolished.

I am in favor of a system that would elect a President through the popular vote directly. It would not be such a system where one candidate with 12% of the vote could become President; in the event of a candidate not garnering 50% of the vote, the top two candidates would face a runoff. Surely if we can hold primaries we can hold an election and a runoff.

If we are truly interested in a democratic system that fairly represents the popular vote, we should use the popular vote. The electoral college allows certain states to carry more weight while others carry none at all, rather than all states being in play and a President having to make promises that affect ALL of them, rather than just some of them.

9:04 am | Comment (10) | Print | Categories: Election '08, Politics